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Showing posts from November, 2014

Bayesian Cognitive Bias

I chanced on this excellent puzzle on the net that tends to reveal a cognitive bias in our heads against Bayesian reasoning. The puzzle statement is quite simple

You are given four cards. Each card has a letter on one side and number on the other side. You are told the statement "If there is a D on one side, there is a 5 on the other side". Which two cards would you flip over to validate the statement?

The original article is here, think hard before you click through for an answer :)